Peru would be entering the second wave of Covid 19 according to analysis of figures and peak would arrive in March


December 31, 2020

The Ministry of Health of Peru warned citizens not to lower their guard and take better care of themselves because for ten days the levels of positivity of the disease have been constantly rising in molecular and rapid tests

According to the data analysis carried out by the experts, the country is entering the regrowth phase.

“Peru is entering a second wave process because the trend in COVID-19 positivity has continued to rise in the last 10 days,” said data analyst Víctor Vargas Fierro.

“The country is entering a second wave process. We have passed the levels of positivity and transmission rate that were reached in the last two outbreaks in April and July, ”explained Vargas Fierro.

“The curve began to grow after it reached 16.338% positivity and when the transmission rate was 0.235 points.” The positivity after December 17 was 17%; then on Saturday 19 it rose to 19% and on December 26 this figure jumped to 22%.

According to the expert, currently the virus has reached a level sufficient to spread, unlike in the past months, which was relatively calm.

“The first wave of COVID-19 infections had two outbreaks. The first began on April 20 and reached its peak of infections on May 31; the second outbreak began at the beginning of phase 3 and rose from July 10 to its peak on August 10. From there we went to the stage of relative calm that lasted all of October and November ”, he explained.

“This slow and progressive ascent will be seen throughout January and will reach its peak in March, it is a process that has already begun,” he said.

On the other hand, the president of the Public Health Committee of the Medical College, Augusto Tarazona, stated that to know that we are in a second wave there must be a sustained increase in cases for seven to ten days, a record that is already being seen in the percentage of positivity.

“The arrival of the second wave is imminent; however, its magnitude is unknown ”, he added.

“The effect of this neglect of the population will be seen for the first week or second week of January, we will probably have a noticeable increase in cases of COVID-19,” he warned.

The Minister of Health, Pilar Mazzetti, admitted that they have managed to perceive an increase in positive cases, in hospital occupation and in the deceased.

“I am worried about the end of the year. Good or bad, we have managed to weather the storm at Christmas, but the New Year is very important, it is the time for young people, and they have a different perception ”, he emphasized.

The Peruvian government has extended the state of emergency for 31 days, starting on January 1, 2021.

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